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#greatrecession

0 posts0 participants0 posts today
Benjamin Carr, Ph.D. 👨🏻‍💻🧬

Preliminary Estimates of #Macroeconomic Costs of Cutting Federal Funding for #Science
• Budget cuts to public R&D would significantly hurt #economy in the long run
• A 25% cut to public R&D spending would reduce #GDP by approximately 3.8%
in long run. This effect is comparable to the decline in GDP during the #GreatRecession
• Cutting annual public R&D spending in half would decrease GDP by approximately 7.6%, making the average #American approximately $10,000 poorer
aura.american.edu/articles/rep

figsharePreliminary Estimates of the Macroeconomic Costs of Cutting Federal Funding for Scientific ResearchFederal agencies such as NIH and NSF are critical sources of funding for basic and applied scientific research. Recently, many of these agencies have seen their research operations frozen or downsized. This brief describes a new analysis of the macroeconomic costs of cutting federal funding for scientific R&D. The brief finds that budget cuts to public R&D would significantly hurt the economy in the long run, with large negative effects on GDP, investment, and government revenue. A 25 percent cut to public R&D spending would reduce GDP by an amount comparable to the decline in GDP during the Great Recession. Cutting annual public R&D spending in half would making the average American approximately $10,000 poorer (in today’s dollars) than the value implied by the historical trend in GDP. Cutting public R&D would also shrink federal government revenue. A 25 percent cut in R&D would decrease revenue by approximately 4.3 percent annually, while a 50 percent cut would decrease it by 8.6 percent annually.
Anthony
Looks like Apollo is calling a recession for Summer 2025. The Trump crew is already trying to blame Biden, but that's 100% horseshit. From what I gather this is unlikely to be reversible so brace yourself in whichever ways you can. There are suggestions this one may be worse than 2008.

https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/042625-ConsumerandFirms_v2.pdf (see page 4 for a summary of the timeline + expectation)

#USPol #USEconomy #recession #GreatRecession
Continued thread
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Nonilex

Even the mildest approach — a 25% reduction in public support for #research & #development — would correlate to a drop in economic output.

#US #GDP, adjusted for #inflation, would be 3.8% smaller in the long term — a decline similar in magnitude to that in the #GreatRecession, which ended in 2009. The drop in output would be much more gradual than that downturn, taking place over years rather than months. But it would also be more lasting.

#economy#science#innovation
1337 $#!+ I did that

So I hear talk of black swan events and the 1987 market crash comes up? It was a correction. Sorry. #greatrecession and #covid were real. I was young in 1987, worked with elders (a senior living apartment place) and they were actually reliving 1929 with TRAUMA, not so much because they were there more than kids in 1929, but more that they lived a *dramatic* history marked by that event. IT WAS HEAVY! We are in the FO phase of another now, that much is clear. #blackswan #trump #tariffs #tradewar

Benjamin Carr, Ph.D. 👨🏻‍💻🧬

The #JobMarket Is Frozen
#Unemployment is low, but workers aren’t quitting and businesses aren’t #hiring. What’s going on?
The answer is that two seemingly incompatible things are happening in the #job market at the same time. Even as the unemployment rate has hovered around 4 percent for more than three years, the pace of hiring has slowed to levels last seen shortly after the #GreatRecession, when the unemployment rate was nearly twice as high.
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/
archive.ph/Nx8G8

The Atlantic · The Job Market Is FrozenBy Rogé Karma
*
⚯ Michel de Cryptadamus ⚯

a bro from the largest american crypto VC firm #a16z is going to be running the #CFTC which in turn will be the agency "regulating" crypto now that the #SEC (also now run by crypto bros) has decided cryptocurrency is not a "security" (like a share of stock or a bond) but instead a "commodity" (like corn or pork bellies). which makes sense, as long as you don't think about it.

fun fact: the CFTC was the agency that regulated (and still regulates) financial derivatives and is more or less directly responsible for 2008's Great Financial Crisis and the Great Recession.

coindesk.com/policy/2025/02/11

CoinDesk · Trump to Tap Former CFTC Commissioner, a16z Policy Head Brian Quintenz for CFTC HeadQuintenz has been known for his crypto advocacy
#MarcAndreessen#BenHorowitz#MAGA
Replied in thread
Musta dawned on me thusly

@RealJournalism the #gramm-Leach-Bliley act of 1999 effectively repealed the Glass-Steagall act of 1933 (passed during the #GreatDepression ) that separated commercial from investment banking.

That was one of the major contributors to the #GreatRecession of 2008.

… so we have a hint of what the consequences will be when #trump gets all of the regulation that was intended to stop any repeat of the Great Depression

Jon PENNYCOOK

'The average UK citizen is £10,200 poorer than they were as a result of the "Great Recession", says a new report by the Centre for Cities.'

euronews.com/business/2024/01/

Andrew Carter, Chief Executive of the Centre for Cities: '"Everywhere, up and down the country, including places that were doing relatively well before, has been levelled down because of the lack of growth."'

euronewsA 'torrid' time for UK regions as they level down, not up The average UK citizen is £10,200 poorer than they were as a result of the "Great Recession", says a new report by the Centre for Cities.
#UK#economy#recession
CPIPR

After 1996 Welfare Reform: Women were more likely to have their first birth precede their first stable employment, facing a higher risk of single motherhood and lack of both earned income and public cash benefits. For 1 in 4 US single mothers without stable jobs before their first birth: Great Recession job declines linked to having no earned income or public cash benefits.

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/310573

PubMedFirst birth before first stable employment and subsequent single-mother 'disconnection' before and after the Welfare Reform and Great Recession - PubMedWe analyze data from two nationally-representative U.S. surveys that include cohorts of young women before and after the 1996 Welfare Reform. Women were more likely to have their first birth precede their first stable employment after than before the reform. Women with this life-course sequence were …
#NICHDImpact#Poverty#Mothers
Hal

Yesterday I increased my (#roth) #401K contribution to 22% of my paycheck. It was 21% before. I have also put $200/month into a (roth) #IRA for years now. I am still behind in savings to be able to #retire reasonably.

There's a narrow generational slice of #Millennials who were so fucked by "the #GreatRecession" that we will pay for it (literally) until we die. Keep us in mind with your hot takes, I guess is all I ask.

Finn (they/them)

Whenever I get into a discussion with a boomer about how to buy a house by eating fewer avo toasts, I can't find the right words to explain why this is wrong on so many levels...I just listened to this podcast and it basically explains in one hour why we are tired, traumatised and fed up and how boomers screwed us over. So, in the future I'll just pull this up and I won't have to explain myself anymore.
podcasters.spotify.com/pod/sho

#greatrecession#okboomer#lifesucks
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