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#Recession

134 posts56 participants14 posts today
Replied to William Lindsey :toad:

@wdlindsy

But The Market (All Hail) is infallible! Hedge fund investors are paid millions because they’re sooooo smart!

"the market is like someone caught in an abusive relationship — still in denial, seizing on every hint of decency as evidence that their partner is really changing their ways.

"Apparently investors and the news media still haven’t learned that you can’t read supposed insider reports on administration thinking the way you could in a normal administration”

Continued thread

"Many forecasters now expect a recession. ... We may soon see a disruption of supply chains reminiscent of what happened during and after the Covid pandemic. But this time a virus won’t be responsible. It will all be about Donald Trump. And this time there won’t be a vaccine coming to our rescue. We’re stuck with this chaos agent for three years and three months."

~ Paul Krugman

#Trump #tariffs #recession
/3

paulkrugman.substack.com/p/tru

Paul Krugman · Trump Is a VirusBy Paul Krugman
Continued thread

"If I had to look at only one type of estimate, it would probably be the prediction markets. ...

Based on current information, I would put the odds of a US recession as high as 60% for the coming year – in line with prediction markets – and even higher for the next four years. While nothing is certain, we should not be surprised if we run aground."

#Trump #tariffs #recession
/2

"Prediction markets tripled the odds they placed on recession after 3 March, when Trump applied 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, and 2 April, when he announced his 'reciprocal tariffs.' As of 19 April, Polymarket shows a 57% chance of recession in the coming year, and Kalshi comes in at 59% – about four times the level in a normal year (15%)."

~Jeffrey Frankel

#Trump #tariffs #recession
/1

theguardian.com/business/2025/

The Guardian · Is a US recession on the horizon amid Trump’s tariffs?By Jeffrey Frankel

Tariffs are a TAX on the POOR!

The Nazi Regime is STEALING $3,800 per year from everyone!

The bottom 10 percent of households by income, for example, would spend 4% of their disposable income on tariffs, while the top 10 percent will only pay 1.6%.

If the tariffs bring on a recession, low-income communities will suffer the most!

During the Great Recession between 2007 and 2009, the number of people living below the poverty line increased by nearly 5 million. When layered on top of the tax cuts, program cuts, and others that have also started putting the economy into a tailspin, the bottom 20% of earners in the US are set to lose $2,030 annually, or 9% of their incomes. #Tariff #tariffs #tax #taxes #economy #recession

budgetlab.yale.edu/research/wh

The Budget Lab at YaleWhere We Stand: The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of All U.S. Tariffs Enacted in 2025 Through April 2
Continued thread

"I want to suggest today that what we are seeing on Wall Street and in markets around the world is the sudden realization that the president is mentally unstable – that he has dementia, probably – and as a result of that realization, investors no longer have any faith in Donald Trump."

~ John Stoehr

#Musk #Tesla #Trump #economy #StockMarkets #tariffs #Dow #recession #WallStreet
/14

alternet.org/alternet-exclusiv

Alternet.org · Wall Street seems to have decided that Trump is mentally unstableBy John Stoehr
Continued thread

"But those attacks are only rattling markets and investors more, backfiring on Trump. We talked to one of the best economic commentators out there, Washington Post columnist Heather Long, author of a new piece on how Trump’s 'tariff madness' is likely to drive us into a recession. She explains why the prognosis is so grim—and why Trump is in a bind with no easy way out."

#Musk #Tesla #Trump #economy #StockMarkets #tariffs #Dow #recession
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