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Hobson LaneIf you like estimates of which <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/technology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#technology</a> R&D approaches are likely to succeed, or interested in where <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#AI</a> is headed, you might enjoy this Metaculus question. Open for comment now & prediction in 2 days. Resolves in Dec."Will conventional pre-<a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/LLM" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#LLM</a> <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/GOFAI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#GOFAI</a> (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/Reasoning" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Reasoning</a> Corpus (<a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/ARC" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ARC</a>) competition?"<a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28655/will-gofai-be-a-part-of-the-arc-prize-winner/#comment-194423" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28655/will-gofai-be-a-part-of-the-arc-prize-winner/#comment-194423</a><a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/Metaculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Metaculus</a> is a nonmonetary (<a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/karma" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#karma</a>-based) <a href="https://mstdn.social/tags/PredictionMarket" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#PredictionMarket</a>.

copaceticThe <a href="https://social.tchncs.de/tags/bot" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#bot</a> is now a <a href="https://social.tchncs.de/tags/week" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#week</a> old, so from now on such weekly change reports are possible.Also, <a href="https://social.tchncs.de/tags/Metaculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Metaculus</a> finally works. I had to change the timestamps.

mrktws news+72% in a week 📈 Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024? <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19969/" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19969/</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/prediction" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#prediction</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Metaculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Metaculus</a>

Lars TrieloffDonald Trump Spends Time in Jail or Prison <a href="https://toot.berlin/tags/metaculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#metaculus</a> resolves as yes, based on a broad interpretation of “jail”, “spends”, “time”, and of course “in” <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/</a>

Judith van StegerenTIL prediction markets <a href="https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarket" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no">https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarket</a>I've looked at a few platforms today and it's fascinating how many statements (markets) are about AI developments at the moment.<a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/predictionmarkets" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#predictionmarkets</a> <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/manifold" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#manifold</a> <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/polymarket" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#polymarket</a> <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/metaculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#metaculus</a> <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/predictions" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#predictions</a> <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#forecasting</a>

Roman/the bioinformatics chatHad fun filling out the <a href="https://scicomm.xyz/tags/metaculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#metaculus</a> scoring survey: <a href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfqMqMYxwizdwWK50FipoGaax25EwgD2IKzMNohHyVHrJ42kw/viewform" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfqMqMYxwizdwWK50FipoGaax25EwgD2IKzMNohHyVHrJ42kw/viewform</a>

Lars Trieloff<a href="https://toot.berlin/tags/metaculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#metaculus</a> is asking the important questions: “will a <a href="https://toot.berlin/tags/StarTrek" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#StarTrek</a> and <a href="https://toot.berlin/tags/StarWars" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#StarWars</a> crossover movie or TV show be made before 2060” – considering industry consolidation, copyright duration, AI capabilities, and monetization pressure, I’m at 61% for yes <a href="https://toot.berlin/tags/predictions" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#predictions</a> <a href="https://toot.berlin/tags/predictionMarkets" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#predictionMarkets</a> <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16011/star-trek-and-star-wars-crossover-before-2060/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16011/star-trek-and-star-wars-crossover-before-2060/</a>

Mott"Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years" <a href="https://metaculus-public.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/OWID%2Breport.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://metaculus-public.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/OWID%2Breport.pdf</a><a href="https://mastodon.radio/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#forecasting</a> <a href="https://mastodon.radio/tags/metaculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#metaculus</a>

Lars Trieloff<a href="https://toot.berlin/tags/metaculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#metaculus</a> now has an official API. I should build something with it. <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15141/officially-launching-the-metaculus-api/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15141/officially-launching-the-metaculus-api/</a>

Lars TrieloffI haven’t written a <a href="https://toot.berlin/tags/metaculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#metaculus</a> question in a while (it takes some thinking to put together good resolution criteria), but I’d love to see predictions about AI art-related copyright settlement amounts in the coming years

Doug Webb<a href="https://mastodon.xyz/tags/metaculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#metaculus</a> is a community prediction platform (not market)Prediction for when <a href="https://mastodon.xyz/tags/cannabis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#cannabis</a> will be legalized in Germany is currently currently sits at May 26, 2024 - only 3 predictors though!<a href="https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13865/cannabis-legalization-in-germany/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13865/cannabis-legalization-in-germany/</a>Let's try and up the accuracy ;p

copaceticAnybody playing on a <a href="https://social.tchncs.de/tags/PredictionMarket" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#PredictionMarket</a> or specifically <a href="https://social.tchncs.de/tags/ManifoldMarkets" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ManifoldMarkets</a> here? I just created a question about our german gas storage levels: <a href="https://manifold.markets/copacetic/will-germanys-gas-storage-in-2023-d?referrer=copacetic" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://manifold.markets/copacetic/will-germanys-gas-storage-in-2023-d?referrer=copacetic</a>(I also created a similar question on <a href="https://social.tchncs.de/tags/Metaculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Metaculus</a> but publication requires a review there and will take a while)

Dont do this at homefor all interested in <a href="https://chaos.social/tags/future" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#future</a> <a href="https://chaos.social/tags/predictions" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#predictions</a> and <a href="https://chaos.social/tags/space" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#space</a>, <a href="https://chaos.social/tags/metaculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#metaculus</a> has opened a tounament dedicated to the new space economy and developments<a href="https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/sagan-tournament/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/sagan-tournament/</a>

Olivia A-CNeat article comparing the accuracy of different <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#forecasting</a> entities on the <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/midterms" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#midterms</a><a href="https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-elections-forecast-comparison" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-elections-forecast-comparison</a>Summary: - <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/Metaculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Metaculus</a> is closest - 538 is just behind them - <a href="https://tech.lgbt/tags/ManifoldMarkets" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ManifoldMarkets</a> is a fair margin below that - everyone else is significantly worseNote: one election cycle is a really small sample and you shouldn't draw huge conclusions without more such cycles

Doug WebbAnyone out there predicting on <a href="https://mastodon.xyz/tags/metaculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#metaculus</a>? <a href="https://www.metaculus.com" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://www.metaculus.com</a>

codesections@22@octodon.social> I like VS Code. But I wish there was an easy place to log this bet, like <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/Metaculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#Metaculus</a> or <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/GoodJudgementProject" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#GoodJudgementProject</a>, superforecaster style. I’d bet long odds today that VS Code will be replaced in Lindy-time.I haven't encountered that exact usage of "lindy-time" before – are you saying that you believe vscode's future lifespan is lower than its past lifespan? I.e., that it'll be essentially dead in ~5 years?I *don't* like vscode but would take the other side of that bet

Guillaume 🦗If you want to practice making accurate predictions, I recommend Metaculus! It's a website that allows you to make predictions, with uncertainty ranges, on questions about the future. You can also propose new questions. <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://www.metaculus.com/</a><a href="https://aleph.land/tags/predictions" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#predictions</a> <a href="https://aleph.land/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#forecasting</a> <a href="https://aleph.land/tags/metaculus" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#metaculus</a> <a href="https://aleph.land/tags/rationality" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#rationality</a>

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