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Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQF🔍 The paper prove that even when data isn't exchangeable (like in time series), coverage loss can be bounded—so in many real-world cases, it doesn’t matter much! These methods power tools like NeuralProphet and Nixtla, and now they’ve got solid math backing them up.<a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/timeseries" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#timeseries</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#forecasting</a>

Andrew ShieldsGusts, chill, / headwinds swirl.Dangerous Patterns Michelle DeRose<a href="https://mas.to/tags/Poetry" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Poetry</a> <a href="https://mas.to/tags/MichelleDeRose" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MichelleDeRose</a> <a href="https://mas.to/tags/Weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Weather</a> <a href="https://mas.to/tags/Forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Forecasting</a> <a href="https://mas.to/tags/Meteorology" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Meteorology</a> <a href="https://oneartpoetry.com/2025/03/30/dangerous-patterns-by-michelle-derose/" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://oneartpoetry.com/2025/03/30/dangerous-patterns-by-michelle-derose/</a>

Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQF✅ Get actionable insights to apply immediately. ✅ Experience a taste of mastering predictive accuracy.Spaces are limited—grab your spot now!🔗 Reserve Your Free Seat Here!<a href="https://maven.com/p/0bad42/ditch-mape-unlock-accurate-forecasts-with-superior-metrics?utm_medium=ll_share_link&utm_source=instructor" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://maven.com/p/0bad42/ditch-mape-unlock-accurate-forecasts-with-superior-metrics?utm_medium=ll_share_link&utm_source=instructor</a><a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/Forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Forecasting</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#AI</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/MachineLearning" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MachineLearning</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/DataScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#DataScience</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/FreeTraining" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#FreeTraining</a>

Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQFEven if you asked, I couldn't reveal their identities. This community is exceptionally close, adept at identifying genuine expertise, and can spot imposters from a mile away.In the realm of forecasting, true mastery is rare and unmistakable.<a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/timeseries" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#timeseries</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#forecasting</a>

Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQFThe reality is such that such transformer methods will never fly in real life, as no good business will accept models producing such awful forecasts no matter what dubious metrics are used in transformer time series papers.<a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/timeseries" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#timeseries</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#forecasting</a>

Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQFJoin leading companies already benefiting from next-level forecasting expertise: <a href="https://maven.com/valeriy-manokhin/modern-forecasting-mastery" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://maven.com/valeriy-manokhin/modern-forecasting-mastery</a><a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/DataScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#DataScience</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/Forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Forecasting</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/AILeadership" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#AILeadership</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/CorporateTraining" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#CorporateTraining</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/LearningBudget" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#LearningBudget</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/ROI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#ROI</a>

Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQF<a href="https://lnkd.in/e4fq4vzZ" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://lnkd.in/e4fq4vzZ</a><a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/Forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#Forecasting</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/AI" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#AI</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/MachineLearning" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#MachineLearning</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/DataScience" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#DataScience</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/FreeTraining" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#FreeTraining</a>

Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQFThe inaugural cohort for Modern Forecasting Mastery kicks off this May and is already fully booked! If you're interested in joining, register your interest now to secure a spot in upcoming cohorts.<a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/timeseries" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#timeseries</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#forecasting</a>

nextGEMSDay two of <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/TheFinalCountdown" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#TheFinalCountdown</a> is slowly winding down. 🌙 Today's session included a lot of <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/coding" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#coding</a> and <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/networking" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#networking</a> for our participants. They also had the chance to listen to Gabriele Messori, who shared his insights into Data-driven forecasts of extreme events and impact <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#forecasting</a> with a focus on extreme heat events and their impacts on mortality rates across Germany.🔥 Tomorrow, the groups will present their first interim results. Stay tuned!<a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/hackathon" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#hackathon</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/cinea_EU" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#cinea_EU</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/H2020" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#H2020</a> <a href="https://fediscience.org/tags/nextGEMS" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#nextGEMS</a>

Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQF<a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/timeseries" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#timeseries</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#forecasting</a> <a href="https://maven.com/valeriy-manokhin/modern-forecasting-mastery?utm_campaign=MzM4NjI1&utm_medium=clp_share_link&utm_source=instructor" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://maven.com/valeriy-manokhin/modern-forecasting-mastery?utm_campaign=MzM4NjI1&utm_medium=clp_share_link&utm_source=instructor</a>

Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQFNo more toy datasets, just real impact. Learn more: [Course Link](<a href="https://maven.com/valeriy-manokhin/modern-forecasting-master" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no" target="_blank">https://maven.com/valeriy-manokhin/modern-forecasting-master</a>)<a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/timeseries" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#timeseries</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#forecasting</a>

Lucas C. WheelerLooking at point forecasts for my area on NWS in the browser this morning and I noticed that the map feature has changed. It now lacks topographical details that were there within the last few days. I am concerned this is a portent of additional changes caused by the DOGE attacks on NWS. Anyone know anything about this? <a href="https://ecoevo.social/tags/uspol" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#uspol</a> <a href="https://ecoevo.social/tags/weather" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#weather</a> <a href="https://ecoevo.social/tags/nws" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#nws</a> <a href="https://ecoevo.social/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#forecasting</a> <a href="https://ecoevo.social/tags/doge" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#doge</a> <a href="https://ecoevo.social/tags/AbolishDOGE" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#AbolishDOGE</a>

Tomasz WoźniakHaving correctly predicted the last cut, my forecasting system has settled on an uncontroversial HOLD 🛑 prediction for the RBA’s April meeting. Regarding the interest rate’s values for the next year’s horizon, one needs to consider the world’s political uncertainty and its impact on inflation and economic activity in Australia. Providing the mid-term cash rate trajectory will not be possible before another two or three rate cuts. 📉 🌐 <a href="https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" translate="no">https://forecasting-cash-rate.github.io/</a><a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/rstats" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#rstats</a> <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/cashrate" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#cashrate</a> <a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#forecasting</a>

Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQFAnd the answer is still a resounding no.<a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/timeseries" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#timeseries</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#forecasting</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/llm" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#llm</a>

Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQFAre people not even embarrassed to publish papers like this? I mean it is glaringly obvious such “forecast” and associated “prediction intervals” are basically useless. 🚮 <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/timeseries" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#timeseries</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#forecasting</a>

Valeriy M., PhD, MBA, CQFMy time series trophy one of them anyway.<a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/timeseries" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#timeseries</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/forecasting" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">#forecasting</a>

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