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Rod2ik 🇪🇺 🇨🇵 🇪🇸 🇺🇦 🇨🇦 🇩🇰 🇬🇱☮🕊️Guerre en <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Ukraine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Ukraine</a> : "Plusieurs centaines de milliers", encore plus élevé que les <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/estimations" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#estimations</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/occidentales" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#occidentales</a>… le nombre de pertes <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/russes" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#russes</a> dévoilé par erreur par un <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/conseiller" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#conseiller</a> de <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Poutine" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Poutine</a><a href="https://www.lindependant.fr/2025/05/23/guerre-en-ukraine-plusieurs-centaines-de-milliers-encore-plus-eleve-que-les-estimations-occidentales-le-nombre-de-pertes-russes-devoile-par-erreur-par-12714160.php" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://www.lindependant.fr/2025/05/23/guerre-en-ukraine-plusieurs-centaines-de-milliers-encore-plus-eleve-que-les-estimations-occidentales-le-nombre-de-pertes-russes-devoile-par-erreur-par-12714160.php</a>

Rod2ik 🇪🇺 🇨🇵 🇪🇸 🇺🇦 🇨🇦 🇩🇰 🇬🇱 ☮🕊️Guerre en <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23Ukraine" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Ukraine</a> : "Plusieurs centaines de milliers", encore plus élevé que les <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23estimations" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#estimations</a> <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23occidentales" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#occidentales</a>… le nombre de pertes <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23russes" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#russes</a> dévoilé par erreur par un <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23conseiller" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#conseiller</a> de <a class="hashtag" href="https://bsky.app/search?q=%23Poutine" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Poutine</a> <a href="https://www.lindependant.fr/2025/05/23/guerre-en-ukraine-plusieurs-centaines-de-milliers-encore-plus-eleve-que-les-estimations-occidentales-le-nombre-de-pertes-russes-devoile-par-erreur-par-12714160.php" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">www.lindependant.fr/2025/05/23/g...</a> <a href="https://www.lindependant.fr/2025/05/23/guerre-en-ukraine-plusieurs-centaines-de-milliers-encore-plus-eleve-que-les-estimations-occidentales-le-nombre-de-pertes-russes-devoile-par-erreur-par-12714160.php" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Guerre en Ukraine : "Plusieurs...</a>

MorgenmuffelPeer: Can you do it in 4 months if I gave you 5 engineers? Me: Now that we are haggling over Okra, can you sell me eggs at $1 a dozen? Peer: Let's go talk to our CEO. He needs to know Me: Sure. Even if you bring Donald Trump in the room, my answer will not change <a href="https://social.screamingatmyscreen.com/tags/Softwareengineering" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Softwareengineering</a> <a href="https://social.screamingatmyscreen.com/tags/CPQ" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#CPQ</a> <a href="https://social.screamingatmyscreen.com/tags/Estimations" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Estimations</a>

MorgenmuffelConversation with a peer today Peer: We have a new RFQ to write Me: About? Peer: CPQ Me: Ok. I looked at the videos and requirements you sent me Peer: And? Me: 6 months minimum Peer: That's too much. This has to be finished in 2 months Me: Nope!!! Even if you clone me into 5 people it will not happen. With the shitty engineers we have, I'd say a year <a href="https://social.screamingatmyscreen.com/tags/Softwareengineering" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Softwareengineering</a> <a href="https://social.screamingatmyscreen.com/tags/CPQ" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#CPQ</a> <a href="https://social.screamingatmyscreen.com/tags/Estimations" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Estimations</a>

N-gated Hacker News🎉BREAKING NEWS: Milan discovers the shocking truth that <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/estimations" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#estimations</a> are wrong—because apparently, tech teams have been oblivious to this for years! 🙄 Meanwhile, managers are left scratching their heads wondering why their spreadsheets aren't psychic. 📉🔮 <a href="https://newsletter.techworld-with-milan.com/p/all-estimations-are-wrong-but-none" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://newsletter.techworld-with-milan.com/p/all-estimations-are-wrong-but-none</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/breakingnews" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#breakingnews</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/techteams" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#techteams</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/managementissues" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#managementissues</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/dataanalysis" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#dataanalysis</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/HackerNews" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#HackerNews</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/ngated" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#ngated</a>

Hacker NewsAll Estimations Are Wrong, but None Are Useful<a href="https://newsletter.techworld-with-milan.com/p/all-estimations-are-wrong-but-none" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no" target="_blank">https://newsletter.techworld-with-milan.com/p/all-estimations-are-wrong-but-none</a><a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/HackerNews" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#HackerNews</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/All" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#All</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Estimations" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Estimations</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Are" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Are</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Wrong" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Wrong</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/but" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#but</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/None" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#None</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Are" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Are</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Useful" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Useful</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Estimations" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Estimations</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Accuracy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Accuracy</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Project" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Project</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Management" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Management</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Tech" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Tech</a> <a href="https://mastodon.social/tags/Insights" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Insights</a>

Alex Wolf 🐺🌍🏳️‍🌈Now, <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/estimations" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#estimations</a> are largely meaningless. What could we do instead?Instead of dabbling in fortune telling (which as I said is what estimations are) we can instead decide how much time we’re willing to invest. It represents an upper boundary of time and therefore an upper boundary of how complex the solution may be. Shorter timeframe = less bells and whistles.”ShapeUp” (a process framework by a company who shall not be named because they're tech bros, the bad kind) calls this "Appetite" but at the end of the day the name doesn’t really matter. What matters is that it’s meaningful (”this much time is what it’s worth to us”) and useful (”we can only do so much in that time”).The problem with “Appetite” is that people aren’t used to it. It requires a change in how engineers think (and it requires them to actually think). But compared to <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/estimates" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#estimates</a> it has at least the potential to be useful.<a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/SoftwareEngineering" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#SoftwareEngineering</a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/Planning" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Planning</a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/Tech" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Tech</a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/TechLeadership" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#TechLeadership</a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/TechMyths" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#TechMyths</a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/Bullshit" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Bullshit</a>

Alex Wolf 🐺🌍🏳️‍🌈Everyone wants meaningful <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/estimations" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#estimations</a>. Rarely are estimations meaningful. Estimations become more meaningful the further along the delivery one is. Early it’s a crapshoot and usually wrong. Estimations and fortune telling have more in common than you might expect.So sure, we can do estimations. The questions are: when and with which level of information? How much confidence do you want in estimations? And let's ignore non-answers such as “as high as possible” because then the answer is that we do an estimation in the last week of delivery because that’s when confidence is the highest.For me personally "meaningful" begins after technical planning. That is when the team sat down and actually planned out the work. It’s still _imagined work_ at that point - so dragons are still abundant - but it’s a good enough basis to give an educated guesstimate. Before that it’s reading tea leaves. Of course we can do it earlier but then the range (best vs worst case) will vary wildly. If that’s meaningful enough, great. If not, then that’s shit but nothing we can really do about it, unless someone on the team has a working crystal ball stashed away.Estimations are one of these things were people love to confidently give wrong answers. It’s a self-perpetuating myth that’s largely done because it was always done and because it gives the illusion of control. Maybe that’s good enough? The illusion?<a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/SoftwareEngineering" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#SoftwareEngineering</a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/Planning" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Planning</a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/Tech" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Tech</a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/TechLeadership" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#TechLeadership</a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/TechMyths" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#TechMyths</a> <a href="https://hachyderm.io/tags/Bullshit" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#Bullshit</a>

Fake Scrum Stats Memes & Humor<a href="https://techhub.social/tags/scrum" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#scrum</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/backlogrefinement" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#backlogrefinement</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/StoryPoints" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#StoryPoints</a> <a href="https://techhub.social/tags/estimations" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#estimations</a>

Gottfried Szing :unverified:<a href="https://fosstodon.org/tags/estimations" class="mention hashtag" rel="tag">#estimations</a> are nothing else then a model. And we all know that all models are wrong, but some are useful. For estimations apply the same: all of them are wrong, but some are useful?Why wrong? because they are only estimations. Why useful? because we need them. But read yourself <a href="https://vadimkravcenko.com/shorts/project-estimates/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" translate="no">https://vadimkravcenko.com/shorts/project-estimates/</a> 🤓By Vadim Kravcenko

JMLR'Non-Asymptotic Guarantees for Robust Statistical Learning under Infinite Variance Assumption', by Lihu Xu, Fang Yao, Qiuran Yao, Huiming Zhang.<a href="http://jmlr.org/papers/v24/22-0034.html" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">http://jmlr.org/papers/v24/22-0034.html</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/estimators" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#estimators</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/estimator" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#estimator</a> <a href="https://sigmoid.social/tags/estimations" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#estimations</a>

DevWouterI have been <a href="https://s.poweredbydev.com/tags/writing" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#writing</a> an article about <a href="https://s.poweredbydev.com/tags/estimations" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#estimations</a>. But it became so big that I decided to change it to a serie of articles. And too make it worse these articles also require very exact wording. I kinda want to put it on hold and work on article that is easier to work on. <a href="https://s.poweredbydev.com/tags/tired" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#tired</a> or <a href="https://s.poweredbydev.com/tags/lazy" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#lazy</a>?

Stéphane Bortzmeyer<a href="https://mamot.fr/@Tris" class="u-url mention" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">@Tris</a> "It is estimated that currently approximately 0.0% of all HTTP-aware intermediaries gracefully handle HTJP traffic." (RFC 8565). <a href="https://mastodon.gougere.fr/tags/statistiques" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#statistiques</a>  <a href="https://mastodon.gougere.fr/tags/estimations" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#estimations</a> <a href="https://mastodon.gougere.fr/tags/chiffres" class="mention hashtag" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">#chiffres</a>

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