Blockchain is best understood in geopolitical frame. Internet is now a sovereign country, now able to give its residents property rights using blockchain and people are immigrating to it. Doesn't have an army yet. Nation states need to decide if they want to be allies or enemies.
People have been moving to Internet with their attention, consumption and productive capacity for a while but they could not have property rights on internet. Now they can.
It's a loose analogy. Food, sex, kids are still in the real world.
If governments were competent at all, some of them would fight the enemy by using is advantage. Expect more CBDC launches, followed by bans on anonymous cryptos.
But there will be govts that are not threatened by anonymous crypto. Full on game theory scenario to play out.
Lack of an army is a serious weakness of crypto nation. It WILL BE exploited. Sure they have the memes and pyramid scheme incentives but it won't be enough. Nations are built upon loyalty and love, not greed and opportunism.
And I think that is partly why blockchain is not "a new internet!". Internet earned both love and loyalty. Users really, REALLY, wanted the Internet. They were willing to pay, not to make money, but to connect. It was a window to the world.
The costs saved by the internet were humongous. Internet also threatened existing institutions, but it left capital controls untouched.
Is there similar love & loyalty for decentralisation among users? Most of them are on Twitter/Discord/Telegram, using Chrome and iPhone.
Blockchain crowd doesn't really care about decentralization. They're in it for money.
I like decentralisation just as I like privacy. But without either (a) internet-scale utility or (b) internet-scale loyalty and love for decentralisation, the crypto nation is on a very, very weak footing. It will be very easy for governments to ban crypto altogether.
Will they though? Hard to predict the outcome of a multi-agent game. I think big nations will launch CBDCs within 5 years and then ban anonymous crypto which will continue to have a small existence like 4chan.
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